到2025年化石燃料排放将达到峰值

据全球能源新闻网2月25日报道，根据雷斯塔能源的研究和分析，化石燃料二氧化碳排放量的拐点即将到来，排放量将到2025年达到峰值。根据目前全球已宣布的政策、项目、行业趋势和预期的技术进步，2025年全球二氧化碳排放量将达到每年约39吉吨，然后随着各行业清理碳足迹，全球二氧化碳排放量将稳步下降。

2022年，随着地缘政治冲突爆发，各国争相获得可靠、价格合理的发电燃料，导致排放量创下历史新高。因此，许多公司转向使用碳密集型燃料作为能源安全危机的短期解决方案，恢复封存的煤炭工厂，并将天然气优先于更清洁的替代品。尽管这些燃料在未来几十年仍将在全球经济中发挥作用，但更广泛地推动更清洁的未来并没有放缓的迹象。

未来的一个迹象是，发电和供热产生的直接二氧化碳排放量（全球工厂化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳）将在今年达到峰值。在未来几年形成势头之前，最初的下降幅度将很小，这将成为到2025年所有行业二氧化碳排放总量减少的重要因素。

郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网

原文如下：

FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025 BEFORE SETTLING INTO STEADY DECLINE

The inflection point for fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is nigh, with emissions on track to peak by 2025, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis. On the current global pathway of announced policies, projects, industry trends and expected technological advancements, global CO2 emissions are poised to hit about 39 gigatonnes per year (Gtpa) in 2025 before settling into a steady annual decline as industries clean up their carbon footprint.

Emissions hit a record high in 2022 as countries scrambled to secure reliable, affordable fuel for power generation on the back of the war. As a result, many turned to more carbon-intensive fuels as a short-term solution to their energy security crises, reviving mothballed coal plants and prioritizing gas over cleaner alternatives. While these fuels will still have a role to play in the global economy for decades to come, the broader push towards a cleaner future is showing no signs of slowing down.

As a sign of things to come, direct CO2 emissions – carbon dioxide originating from fossil fuel combustion at the plants worldwide – from power and heat generation will peak this year. The decline will be minimal initially before gathering momentum in the coming years, becoming a significant factor behind the decrease in total CO2 emissions from all sectors by 2025.